Even if Republicans fail to win any of the 26 Toss Up races just 1 of the 26 would give them the majority they are currently projected to gain 4 seats. External Relations: Moira Delaney Hannah Nelson Caroline Presnell Senate, House, and Governor Election results also available at ABCNews.com The Current House view on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. Clickme! Crime has become KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We are making a couple of House rating changes this week, both of which are to the benefit of members who won recent special elections. Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. The Rio Grande Valley swung sharply to the right in the last election. GOP set to take the Senate and House, plus a small net gain in governorships. The court later fixed March 15, 2022, as the filing deadline for statewide offices and the U.S. Congress. The generic congressional vote question does not mention specific candidates. National House generic ballot polling can be a useful tool in projecting the overall results of House and Senate elections. Gibbs' margin of victory over Meijer in the primary. One district was vacant because the incumbent passed away.[3]. Two predictors largely explain the variation in seat swing in midterm elections: the generic ballot and the number of House and Senate seats defended by the presidents party. Elections to the U.S. House were held on November 8, 2022. Check out our, There is no secret sauce. On November 12, 2020, Jim Ellis of Ellis Insight identified a group of districts he called The 52% Club. Congressional redistricting was completed after the 2020 census for 435 of the 435 seats (100%) in the U.S. House of Representatives. You can also view these ratings as a table. Table 2 displays the results of regression analyses of House and Senate seat change in midterm elections between 1946 and 2018. Louisiana primaries are held on Election Day. Ballotpedia identified 33 of the 435 House races (8.5%) as battlegrounds. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. Lawmakers in the Colorado House of Representatives on Monday defeated a Republican proposal for a sweeping overhaul of state election laws backed by conspiracy theorists who baselessly allege that . The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Tennessee was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the nine U.S. representatives from the state of Tennessee, one from each of the state's nine congressional districts.The elections coincide with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. This section does not include vacant seats filled by special election before November 8, 2022, unless no incumbents appeared on the regular primary ballot for that seat. According to Politico, the PVI is designed to "provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength in a congressional district. The final 2022 House ratings from Inside Elections. Nov. 6, 2022 Georgia's 2nd District Previous rating: Likely Democratic Democratic Rep. Sanford Bishop is still favored for reelection, but GOP Gov. Democrats held 30 of those districts, Republicans held seven, and two were newly created districts after the 2020 census. The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often. Leading candidates forecasted chance of winning and margin of victory in the top 50 competitive districts. Forecasts from outside this range can easily be generated by extrapolating from those shown in the table. November 7: CA-22, PA-17, RI-02, TX-34 move from Toss-up to Tilts R; CA-49, IN-01, NY-03 Leans to Tilts D; CT-05, NV-01 Tilts D to Toss-up; IL-08, WA-06 Safe to Likely D; ME-02, MN-02 Toss-up to Leans D; NY-22 Leans to Tilts R; OH-01 Toss-up to Leans R; TX-28 Tilts to Leans D; VA-02 Tilts to Leans R; WA-08 Leans D to Toss-up. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964. Senate Projection. A recent Quinnipiac poll gave Democrats a nine-point lead on the generic ballot. Based on the Senate results, a one-point increase or decrease in the generic ballot margin for the presidents party would be expected to produce a swing of about 0.2 seats and every additional seat defended by the presidents party would be expected to produce a net loss of more than 0.8 seats. Based on the House results, a one-point increase or decrease in the generic ballot margin for the presidents party would be expected to produce a swing of about 1.7 seats and every additional seat defended by the presidents party would be expected to produce a net loss of more than 0.6 seats. See Other Commentary by Dr. Alan Abramowitz. The final2022 House ratings from Politico. He withdrew before the runoff. 213 -10. A smaller Democratic lead in the generic ballot, or a Republican lead, would predict a Republican edge in the House, and possibly also in the Senate. The original filing deadline was set for March 8, 2022. These figures include the seat of Rep. Donald McEachin (D), who passed away on November 28, after winning re-election. Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. -- The goal is to use micro level (congressional district and state) competitiveness assessments in combination with their electoral history to statistically generate an accurate prediction of the KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- A congressional forecasting model using political and economic fundamentals suggests that Republicans are favored to flip both the House and the Senate. Miles Coleman, and Larry J. Sabato. In the sections below, you will find: Click here for our Election Day coverage of the November 8, 2022, U.S. House election results. The generic ballot provides a measure of the national political environment at the time of the midterm election while the number of seats defended by the presidents party provides a measure of exposure to risk. A few weeks ago, Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik wrote about the 1978 and 1982 midterms. Last updated: Feb. 3, 2023 11:57 a.m. PST 218 for majority 213 DEMS GOP. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Leans (60%+), Likely (75%+), Safe (95%+). You deserve to hear our thinking. The generic ballot model uses two predictors the generic ballot along with the number of seats defended by the presidents party to generate forecasts of seat swing in midterm elections. In the House data, the only point that appears to be conspicuously far removed from the line is the one for 2002 the midterm election that occurred shortly after the 9/11 attacks at a time when the incumbent president, George W. Bush, remained extraordinarily popular. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. [16], In 2022, 31 U.S. House races did not have major party opposition. RCP Senate Map Race Changes. The U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Alabama postponed the filing deadline for primary congressional candidates from January 28, 2022, to February 11, 2022. The generic congressional vote rating indicates which political party voters support in a congressional election. Nineteen races did not feature a Democratic candidate and 12 races did not feature a Republican candidate.[19]. Dots closer to the line represent tighter races, and wider bars mean more uncertainty about the outcome. Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne survived 2020, despite Donald Trump carrying her Des Moines-based district. Pennsylvania's new congressional map is generally good news for Democrats except for Rep. Susan Wild, whose Lehigh Valley seat got tougher for her. [40][41], On February 10, 2021, the NRCC released an initial list of 47 House Democrats whose districts it would target in the 2022 elections. 50. Click here for our coverage of special elections to the 117th Congress. [2] Ten districts were open because the incumbent lost in a primary. We work hard to make predictions that are both accurate and defensible. Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R), in response to a federal court order, directed that the primary for state legislative offices be held on August 2, 2022. Alabama. Election Date: Nov. 8, 2022 | Updated 7:00 PM EST Dec. 23, 2022. Currently, they have 76 seats in the National Assembly. Heading into the election, Democrats had a 220-212 majority. The closer fit of the data points to the prediction line in the House data is very clear from these figures. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. We're tracking new legislative maps as they come out, and crunching the numbers. U.S. House races in which more than one incumbent ran, non-voting delegate seats that were up for election in 2022, districts targeted by national campaign committees, newly created seats following the 2020 census, Fundraising figures for party campaign committees, important dates and deadlines for the 2022 election cycle, Click here for our Election Day coverage of the November 8, 2022, U.S. House election results, Delaware's At-Large Congressional District, Massachusetts' 1st Congressional District, Massachusetts' 2nd Congressional District, Massachusetts' 3rd Congressional District, Massachusetts' 4th Congressional District, Massachusetts' 5th Congressional District, Massachusetts' 6th Congressional District, Massachusetts' 7th Congressional District, Massachusetts' 8th Congressional District, Massachusetts' 9th Congressional District, New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District, New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District, North Carolina's 1st Congressional District, North Carolina's 10th Congressional District, North Carolina's 11th Congressional District, North Carolina's 12th Congressional District, North Carolina's 13th Congressional District, North Carolina's 14th Congressional District, North Carolina's 2nd Congressional District, North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District, North Carolina's 4th Congressional District, North Carolina's 5th Congressional District, North Carolina's 6th Congressional District, North Carolina's 7th Congressional District, North Carolina's 8th Congressional District, North Carolina's 9th Congressional District, North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 11th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 13th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 14th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 16th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 17th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 2nd Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 4th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 5th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 6th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 9th Congressional District, Rhode Island's 1st Congressional District, Rhode Island's 2nd Congressional District, South Carolina's 1st Congressional District, South Carolina's 2nd Congressional District, South Carolina's 3rd Congressional District, South Carolina's 4th Congressional District, South Carolina's 5th Congressional District, South Carolina's 6th Congressional District, South Carolina's 7th Congressional District, South Dakota's At-Large Congressional District, Vermont's At-Large Congressional District, West Virginia's 1st Congressional District, West Virginia's 2nd Congressional District, Wyoming's At-Large Congressional District, United States congressional non-voting members, American Samoa's At-Large Congressional District, District of Columbia's At-Large Congressional District, Northern Mariana Islands At-Large Congressional District, United States Virgin Islands' At-Large Congressional District, Redistricting in Florida after the 2020 census, Redistricting in Georgia after the 2020 census, Redistricting in Illinois after the 2020 census, Redistricting in Michigan after the 2020 census, Redistricting in New York after the 2020 census, Redistricting in Texas after the 2020 census, Redistricting in West Virginia after the 2020 census, Congressional apportionment after the 2020 census, California's 22nd Congressional District election, 2022, California's 27th Congressional District election, 2022, Colorado's 8th Congressional District election, 2022, Illinois' 17th Congressional District election, 2022, Indiana's 1st Congressional District election, 2022, Iowa's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022, Kansas' 3rd Congressional District election, 2022, Maine's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022, Michigan's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022, Michigan's 7th Congressional District election, 2022, Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022, Nevada's 1st Congressional District election, 2022, Nevada's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022, New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District election, 2022, New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022, New Jersey's 7th Congressional District election, 2022, New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022, New York's 19th Congressional District election, 2022, New York's 22nd Congressional District election, 2022, New York's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022, North Carolina's 13th Congressional District election, 2022, Ohio's 13th Congressional District election, 2022, Ohio's 1st Congressional District election, 2022, Ohio's 9th Congressional District election, 2022, Oregon's 5th Congressional District election, 2022, Pennsylvania's 17th Congressional District election, 2022, Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District election, 2022, Rhode Island's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022, Texas' 15th Congressional District election, 2022, Texas' 28th Congressional District election, 2022, United States House of Representatives election in Alaska, 2022, Virginia's 7th Congressional District election, 2022, Washington's 8th Congressional District election, 2022, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, National Republican Congressional Committee, State legislative and congressional redistricting after the 2020 census, Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2022, Ballotpedia's Candidate Filing Analysis Hub, 2022, Georgia's 7th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 24 Democratic primary), Illinois' 17th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Democratic primary), Illinois' 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Democratic primary), Illinois' 6th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Democratic primary), Illinois' 7th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Democratic primary), Illinois' 8th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Democratic primary), Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), Michigan's 11th Congressional District election, 2022 (August 2 Democratic primary), Michigan's 12th Congressional District election, 2022 (August 2 Democratic primary), Minnesota's 1st Congressional District special election, 2022 (May 24 Democratic primary), Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022 (May 10 Democratic primary), Nevada's 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (June 14 Democratic primary), New York's 10th Congressional District election, 2022 (August 23 Democratic primary), New York's 12th Congressional District election, 2022 (August 23 Democratic primary), North Carolina's 13th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), North Carolina's 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), North Carolina's 4th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), Ohio's 11th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 3 Democratic primary), Oregon's 4th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), Oregon's 5th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), Oregon's 6th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), Texas' 15th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Democratic primary), Texas' 15th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 24 Democratic primary runoff), Texas' 28th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Democratic primary), Texas' 28th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 24 Democratic primary runoff), Texas' 30th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Democratic primary), Texas' 30th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 24 Democratic primary runoff), Texas' 34th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Democratic primary), Texas' 35th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Democratic primary), Texas' 37th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Democratic primary), Alabama's 5th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 21 Republican primary runoff), Alabama's 5th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 24 Republican primary), Arizona's 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (August 2 Republican primary), Arizona's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022 (August 2 Republican primary), Colorado's 8th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Republican primary), Illinois' 15th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Republican primary), Indiana's 9th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 3 Republican primary), Iowa's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (June 7 Republican primary), Michigan's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (August 2 Republican primary), Minnesota's 1st Congressional District special election, 2022 (May 24 Republican primary), Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Republican primary runoff), Nebraska's 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (May 10 Republican primary), Nevada's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (June 14 Republican primary), Nevada's 4th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 14 Republican primary), New York's 23rd Congressional District election, 2022 (August 23 Republican primary), North Carolina's 11th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Republican primary), North Carolina's 13th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Republican primary), North Carolina's 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Republican primary), Ohio's 13th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 3 Republican primary), Ohio's 9th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 3 Republican primary), South Carolina's 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (June 14 Republican primary), South Carolina's 7th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 14 Republican primary), Texas' 15th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Republican primary), Texas' 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Republican primary), Texas' 38th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Republican primary), Texas' 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Republican primary), Texas' 8th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Republican primary), United States House election in Wyoming, 2022 (August 16 Republican primary), Virginia's 7th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 21 Republican primary), West Virginia's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022 (May 10 Republican primary), Election results, 2022: Comparison of state delegations to the 117th and 118th Congresses, Number of Democratic and Republican candidates on the ballot for federal and state offices, 2022, Ballot access for major and minor party candidates, Congressional incumbents not running for re-election, Cooperative of American Physicians IE Committee, Ken Carbullido, Vice President of Election Product and Technology Strategy, https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2022&oldid=9073405, Pages using DynamicPageList parser function, Pages using DynamicPageList dplreplace parser function, Conflicts in school board elections, 2021-2022, Special Congressional elections (2023-2024), 2022 Congressional Competitiveness Report, State Executive Competitiveness Report, 2022, State Legislative Competitiveness Report, 2022, Partisanship in 2022 United States local elections, 6/28/2022; 8/23/2022 (congressional and state senate only), 4/7/2022; 6/10/2022 (congressional and state senate only), 7/5/2022 (if no federal office is involved); 7/26/2022 (if a federal office is involved), 5/3/2022 (Congress and statewide offices), 2/2/2022 (U.S. House candidates: 3/4/2022), 3/15/2022 (Congress and statewide offices only). 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. We're constantly speaking with campaigns to form our ratings. Dear Readers: Listeners to our Politics is Everything podcast are already familiar with Carah Ong Whaley, who joined the Center for Politics several months ago. CrowdwisdomLive Quebec Election 2022 Predictions: . RCP Gov Map Race . The candidate of Labour Party, Thaddeus Attah, has been declared the winner of the Eti-Osa Federal Constituency seat in the House of Representatives. Updated September 23, 2022 10:43 am. Full election results. There are three tiers of the program, with each requiring that candidates meet more rigorous goals in order to qualify. Given the expected impact of redistricting, however, Democrats probably need a larger lead to keep control of the House. The Maryland Court of Appeals extended the candidate filing deadline from February 22, 2022, to March 22, 2022. The following map shows each state with a Democratic battleground primary for U.S. House in 2022. To learn more about congressional non-voting members in the U.S. House of Representatives, click here. Six states (Texas, Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon) gained districts, and seven states (California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia) lost districts. San Nicolas (D), the delegate representing Guam's At-Large Congressional District, retired to run for governor. This is not surprising given the much smaller number of Senate seats contested in each election and the larger potential impact of local factors such as candidate quality and fundraising. Republicans are favored to win the House. The state court then issued an order establishing new candidate filing deadlines. Each partys chances of winning every House seat. [52] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. Click here for more information about apportionment after the 2020 census. With over 37% vote share, they won 74 of the 125 seats. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) reported the following fundraising amounts for the 2021-22 election cycle: !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}}))}(); As with the House, the margin of control in the next Senate is likely to be very narrow. All 435 seats were up for election. We use polling where appropriate, but we always factor in our understanding of the pollster's quality. Republicans are widely expected to gain at least a few additional House seats in 2022 by virtue of controlling states with far more House districts during the redistricting process. There were three vacancies. Quebec Election 2022 Date: October 3rd, 2022. There were 30 U.S. House Republican battleground primaries in 2022. View live updates on electoral votes by state for presidential candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump on ABC News. Terms of service | Privacy Policy | Do not sell my info | Notice to California Residents, Design & development: Andrew Briz, Beatrice Jin, Arjun Kakkar, Andrew McGill, Allan James Vestal, Audience & strategy: Caroline Amenabar, Annie Bryan, Kam Burns, Isabel Dobrin, Annie Yu, Elana Zak. The most vulnerable GOP incumbent in the country might be Rep. Mike Garcia, whose district north of Los Angeles voted for President Joe Biden by 13 points. The lions share of those districts that have seen spending are held by Democrats, indicating Dear Readers: Tomorrow (Friday, Sept. 23) from noon to 1:30 p.m., the Center for Politics will honor the service of U.S. Capitol Police Officers and D.C. Metropolitan Police Officers who defended the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 with the presentation of the Centers first annual Defender of Democracy awards. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- This article updates and applies the seats-in-trouble congressional election forecasting equations to the 2022 midterm elections. As a result of the elections, Republicans gained a 222-213 majority.[1]. Current House. Governor Charlie Baker (R) signed a bill into law that rescheduled the state's primary election from September 20, 2022, to September 6, 2022. The party gained a net of nine districts. 2022 U.S. House Elections with multiple incumbents. The Chairman, Committee on Media and Public Affairs, House of Representatives, Benjamin Kalu, has won the election for the seat of Bende Federal . 26th February 2023. Additionally, the data drives a daily update newsletter and various media outlets across the country. The darker the square, the greater the likelihood this will occur. Forty-four (44) states adopted congressional district maps. Sablan ran as an independent from 2008 to 2020. Scholten defeated Gibbs in the general election. Only districts rated safe by six of them are shown in the darkest shade. [53][54], The following table displays candidates who qualified as Young Guns for the 2022 election cycle. Box 400806Charlottesville, VA 22904, 2020 By the Rector and Visitors of the University of Virginia. Brian Kemp's strength at the top of the ticket. Despite their extremely narrow majorities, the forecasts in Table 3 show that Democrats have a reasonable chance of keeping control of both chambers in the midterm elections if they maintain at least a narrow lead on the generic ballot. We rated every race in play in 2022. Five of the chamber's six non-voting members were up for election as well. RCP House Map Race Changes. Republicans 29 seats not up for election. Michael F.Q. Each partys seat count in scenarios where it wins the House in our Deluxe models 40,000 simulations. Seven states (California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia) lost seats.[62]. [43][44][45][46] The table below lists target districts and incumbents leading up to the 2022 elections. McLeod-Skinner's margin of victory over Schrader in the primary. No Electoral College majority, House decides election. [66][67], Cook's 2022 PVI report included the following congressional district statistics following the 2020 election cycle:[68]. Benjamin Kalu. This analysis uses the following definitions: !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r