One German historical mission even worked to document and preserve old wooden synagogues. However, it was his role in the east in 1916 that brought Ludendorff to greater prominance. This problem has been solved! Listening well means not just understanding the words or the information being communicated, but also understanding the emotions the . By late 1916 his staff and field officers had developed the first modern defensive warfare doctrine for the era of machine guns and artillery. This occupied territory became known as the Ober Ost [short for Oberbefehlshaber der gesamten Deutschen Streitkrfte im Osten, or "Supreme Commander of All German Forces in the East], after the designation for the commanders of the region. These men earned his respect and the respect of the nation. Ludendorff, along with Hindenburg, was responsible for the decisive defeat of Russian forces and for the creation of a vast state of German military occupation in Eastern Europe during World War I. Ludendorff was pivotal in the creation and diffusion of the fictitious Stab-in-the-Back myth, which blamed Jews, liberals, communists, democrats, and war profiteers for the defeat of Germany in World War I. Ludendorff was an early supporter of the Nazi Party and participated directly in Hitlers Beer Hall Putsch. Explain why Mexico opened its border to Anglo migration to Coahuila y Tejas and how those events eve, Relate the reasons and methods used in the relocation of Indians to the West side of the Mississippi. Why do you think stock prices continued to plummet after the stock market crashed in 1929? They approached us with the idea for creating the Calibrate Your Judgment web app. In 1964 an Ohio woman took up the challenge that had led to Amelia Earharts disappearance. Why were new medical treatments and inventions developed during World War. As Prittwitz retired into obscurity, Eighth Army Deputy Chief of Staff Max Hoffmann briefed his new bosses on a plan he had already set in motion. Strategically, Ludendorff supported the Imperial Navys efforts to resume unrestricted submarine warfare, whatever its impact on the United States. You see this in sports, with baseball teams that harness the power of data to build their rosters instead of relying solely on scouts to pick the best players. Chapter 14, Target's Big Data #5. Check one reason.-People do not have the knowledge to accurately predict what will happen.-People's imaginations are more powerful than scientific realities.-People imagine future technologies based on the technold ey currently have. Ludendorffs career improved when World War I broke out a year later. Moreover, to make these gains, the Germans took nearly a million casualtiesfar heavier offensive losses than those suffered by the Allies earlier in the war. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Other. The cluster numbers have no meaning. There are several activities that teachers can incorporate within their classroom, allowing students to effectively make predictions. http://specialed.about.com/od/readingliteracy/a/Reading-Comprehension-Skills-Making-Predictions.htm, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsLD33rczFA. By early October, he had shifted the blame to the liberals and socialists. Students can make predictions based on patterns. how do you think ludendorff made such an accurate prediction, "By naming Hitler as Reich chancellor, you have delivered up our holy Fatherland to one of the greatest (rabble-rousers) of all time. During Operation Alberich, named for the vicious dwarf of the Nibelungen saga, the withdrawing Germans completely destroyed more than 1,000 square miles of French territory. His parents were middle-class but strongly nationalist. The second message is that expert predictors developed their expertise by relying on tons of corrective feedback to shape their forecasts. There are several companies dedicated to offering this as a service like ibisworld, pwc, and statista, to name a few. The offensive failed. One such organization that has to make many challenging decisions in an uncertain world is the Open Philanthropy Project, whose mission is to use research and grantmaking to improve lives as effectively as possible. In March 1918, Ludendorff launched a huge, but unsuccessful, offensive on the Western Front in attempt to defeat the Allies before the arrival of American troops. Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. His objective for them was to remove them one by one, murdering millions of Jews in the process That battle bled the French white, but it also exhausted the Germans. When the model says a patient needs to be screened, its right 2 out of 5 times (accuracy of 40%). How can we make predictions more accurate? That's your "outside view" perspective. If we are speaking about predicting a football match only based on our knowledge and statistical data, the right source for information is an essential element. Ultimately, Ludendorff saw Ober Ost as a territory that could be settled and civilized, but he did not hold the same radical vision that Hitler later espoused. Collect student answers, and confirm and correct as needed. 2023 Pendo.io, Inc. All rights reserved. Ludendorff fled to neutral Sweden. Ludendorff is a rural Canadian border town in the Midwestern state of North Yankton. The Germans faced a desperate situation in the West. In his free time, Sriram coaches kids for competitive math and science competitions. Step #1: Clean Bad Data The principal of Garbage In, Garbage Out applies to forecasting as it does with many things. Some characteristics were that fascism provided stability because everything was controlled by one person, so there would be no unstable democracies/coalitions People hoped that Fascism would restore economic stability, etc. The emphasis shifted from the trench lines to well-camouflaged strong points that would shield the defenders from observation and bombardment. (n.d.). But their predictions could be harmful if they dont strive to consider relevant data and make clear the limits of their ability to predict future events. These tactical reforms represented the building blocks of modern war. . Maybe the third version improves to 88% accuracy as you continue to get gather customer feedback. Ludendorff took part in Hitlers ill-fated Beer Hall Putsch in November, 1923, but was acquitted of all charges at trial in 1924. The problem is that all this is good at explaining what happened in the past but cannot provide much ins. The more helpful modeling and support they get early on with this skill, the more automatic and accurate their predictions will be as they tackle harder and more complex texts. Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better user experience for the visitors. How else can you get better at making predictions? The loss of ground up to date appeared to me of little importance in itself. Agreeableness (which is made up of 9 questions) and Emotional intelligence (which is made. What they didnt know was that Rennenkampf and Samsonov had been bitter enemies since the 190405 Russo-Japanese War and would not be overly inclined to help each other. Most learners in Stage 2 will be able to say whether what happened was what they expected to happen, or not, at the end of an enquiry. Instead of starting with your own personal instinct, consider what the outside perspective says; for instance, how have similar predictions to this one turned out in the past? So this conversation is about why some people, like Tetlock's "superforecasters," are so much better at predicting the future than everyone else and about the intellectual virtues . Laypeople make predictions everyday, prognosticating on everything from sports and politics to weather and entertainment. While stalled in the west, the German army won decisive battles in the east. for any assignment or question with DETAILED EXPLANATIONS! Hitler and many of his inner circle had distanced themselves from Ludendorff over his increasingly erratic and bizarre beliefs. Nevertheless, it is the 2194 th site in Nigeria and ranks 9 th on this list of best sports prediction sites. 100 Raoul Wallenberg Place, SW And they were to play a major role in German defensive successes on the Western Front in 1917: first, in defeating the Nivelle Offensive in April, nearly breaking the French army in the process; and second, in thwarting Field Marshal Sir Douglas Haigs heavy-handed offensive at Passchendaele, Belgium, in late summer and fall. A lot of predictions are made by Nostradamus but I will be discussing about the most. When communicating with others, we often focus on what we should say. It consists entirely of peoples individual predictions about how they are going to vote in the future and whether they are actually going to make it to the polls, based on what they know and how they feel at the time of the poll. This work is dedicated to the effective solution of such problems. Like most of the border towns split between Polish and German ethnicity, Kruszewnia was a hotbed of Prusso-German nationalism. The offensive failed , leaving Germany exposed to an Allied invasion. Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website. A neural network gets better and better each time it makes a prediction. The vast occupied military empire over which Hindenburg and Ludendorff exercised almost unlimited power was significant for two reasons. Most predictions are made in non-scientific fields. Now we'll check out the proven way to improve the accuracy of a model: 1. The defense of our infantry had become so flabby that the massed attacks of the enemy always succeeded. When the model says a patient need not be screened, its right 91 out of 95 times (accuracy of 95.8%). This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. Will it be by the end of 2020, or another date in the future? Assigning a range of dates and a probability of this event happening within those dates will help you practice more evidence based thinking. Missing values can create a problem while building a predictive model.This is because we dont analyze the . How can we make predictions more accurate? By October, Germanys allies were collapsing one after another. While they held a paternalistic and often prejudiced perspective, Hindenburg and Ludendorff were also concerned with bringing culture and civilization to the area. On the Somme, the enemys powerful artillery, assisted by excellent aeroplane observation and fed with enormous supplies of ammunition, had kept down our own fire and destroyed our artillery. Or, you might consider using additional evaluation metrics. One of the easiest ways to consider alternatives is to ask yourself, what are some reasons my judgment might be wrong? Tetlock calls this dragonfly eye perspective - valuing diverse views and combining them with your own perspective. For example, what historical inquiry skills might be important for a citizenry to have to address, Think about a challenge, opportunity, event, or issue that affects your community. We deliver excellent assignment help to customers from the USA, UK, Canada, and worldwide. Instead of starting with your own personal instinct, consider what the outside perspective says; for instance, how have similar predictions to this one turned out in the past? Its service was said to be rated the "best football prediction site of the year". Originally published in [emailprotected] on August 17, 2017. It is important for teachers to encourage children to record clues that either support or deny their predictions. Today, there are many challenges in this area, which are characterized by insufficient data for various reasons. Second, it created a history of German occupation that would influence Jewish reactions to the Holocaust. Subscribe to receive our weekly newsletter with top stories from master historians. Washington, DC 20024-2126 Collect data for the relevant variables. Most beginners to forecasting are overconfident, which you can combat by reducing your initial gut feeling of confidence (by, say, 5-15%). 7. Students will find that when they use prediction they are more engaged with the story, finding that they connect their knowledge . Almost immediately, Ludendorff began to proclaim in speeches, books, and articles the myth of the Stab-in-the-Back. He argued that Germany had not been militarily defeated but rather had been sabotaged by liberals, communists, war profiteers, and Jews on the home front. The U-boat offensive had failed. Samsonovs advance obviously made his army the most vulnerable. When you want to make a prediction, try not to use words like inevitable, "probably," impossible, or maybe. Instead, approach the claim with a range and a probability. Polling data is helpful, but its still all future-oriented guesses, not hard data cemented in the past. What is feedback and why is it important? 1. The most comprehensive and authoritative history site on the Internet. Booksource. However, effective communication is less about talking and more about listening. We also did it this way in Russia. And that is precisely what the Germans, under Ludendorffs direction, did. The main steps of predicting football matches correctly: 1. Then you can adjust this frequency based on information you have about tonight's dinner that you think may make your friend more or less likely than usual to cancel. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. Think hard about how confident you are that the date really falls within that range, keeping in mind that people usually give ranges that are too narrow. When you have taken this information into account, only then consider the specific evidence from your experience, and use this to adjust your final prediction. 1) Get used to thinking in ranges and probabilities. Once again, Ludendorff displayed neither leadership nor strategic sense. How might being more historically informed impact how you understand that issue or how you take action. Annotate your books. Romanias declaration of war in August further compounded the Central Powers strategic difficulties. Know the teams at least on a basic level. For example, if you want to estimate the year. Predictions About the Future Facts 42. Only the desperate intervention of Chancellor Theobald von Bethmann Hollweg persuaded Kaiser Wilhelm to halt the campaign. The battle of materiel, as Ludendorff termed it, was even more serious. He became a strong supporter of the fledgling Nazi Party and of its leader, Adolf Hitler. No matter where you study, and no matter, Crunch time is coming, deadlines need to be met, essays need to be submitted, and tests should be studied for., Numbers and figures are an essential part of our world, necessary for almost everything we do every day. Whether they produced battlefield images of the dead or daguerreotype portraits of common soldiers, []. Originally published in the October 2008 issue of Military History. Based on the likelihood of these events, you can try to estimate the probability of your initial question occurring. Answer (1 of 9): In general economist's predictions are dismaly inaccurate. He sought input from both senior officers and frontline commanders. What do you need to know to solve the problem, where are you going to find that out, what issues do you need to consider, what could effect things? Predicting is an important reading strategy. Make connections to the text using your prior knowledge. However, you may visit "Cookie Settings" to provide a controlled consent. What are some of the keys to making accurate predictions? What is a good prediction accuracy? When meteorologists try to predict tomorrows weather, theyll be able to draw upon mountains of carefully recorded data on precise atmospheric conditions and what the weather was actually like. Oftentimes we hope that the pundits we see on TV or read in the paper might be offering up good ideas and novel information. Hindenburg and Ludendorff insisted Germany should act decisively to drive Russia out of the war. What happens to atoms during chemical reaction? What were some similarities between racism in Nazi Germany and in the United States, 1920s-1940s? Weather forecasting is often considered the gold standard of prediction, because meteorologists receive so much corrective feedback, enabling them to constantly rework their algorithms. As the war stretched into 1916, Falkenhayn and the Hindenburg-Ludendorff duo continued to bicker over German strategy. This new doctrine rested on the concept of holding frontline positions lightly with machine gunners, with successively stronger defensive positions echeloned in depth. The Kriegsakademie was so rigorous that most cadets washed out of the first and second-year courses. Many companies make decisions based primarily on gut feeling. Reading Strategy: Prediction. Pendo trademarks, product names, logos and other marks and designs are trademarks of Pendo.io, Inc. or its subsidiaries and may not be used without permission. In science, it helps learners to reflect on what has happened in practical work when they check their conclusions against their prediction. He joined the German army and rose rapidly through the ranks to prestigious posts in the War Academy and German General Staff. Here are two simple ways you can encourage your child to put her prediction skills to work as a scientist. K-means is randomized. On the other hand, a prediction is the outcome you would observe if your hypothesis were correct. At the end of the week, you see that Machines M, W, and X actually failed. One has to wonder how history might have turned if one of the Belgians had done his job and summarily shot Ludendorff for his temerity. How do you think Ludendorff made such an accurate prediction? Erich Ludendorff was a German general who gained renown during the First World War, primarily for his efforts on the eastern front. By now artillery was the great killer on the Western Front, so Ludendorff concentrated German reserves and defensive positions in rear areas, out of range of all but the heaviest Allied guns. Prior to MetiStream, Sriram was with MicroStrategy for 15 years, where, as an early employee, he was integral to building and launching several product/modules. On the Somme, British attacks were imposing huge losses on the German army. Clearly, a single data point tells you nothing. Feature selection is almost the inverse of #2 above, and pulls your model in the opposite direction (decreasing variance on the expense of some bias) but the trade-off can be good if you do the . If the meteorologist is accurate, it should have in fact rained 30% of those times. Ludendorff led the charge for the General Staff, in the process angering many higher-ups. In making predictions, students use critical thinking and problem solving skills. And as young Erich gobbled up military histories filled with romantic legends and nationalist nonsense about Prussias struggles against Napolon or its heroic defeat of the evil French in the Franco-Prussian War, his nationalistic fervor soon eclipsed that of his parents. Making a strong prediction requires a clear understanding of the text and brainstorming e.g. As it turns out, it was profitable to increase wages, as. With imbalanced data like this, we need to look at potential fixes. This is how prediction markets work - by combining many sources of information to provide forecasts that are often more reliable than individual experts. If youd like help seeking out alternative hypotheses, our Belief Challenger tool does exactly this, encouraging you to question your existing perspectives on the world. In my final analysis on Ludendorff, notes David Zabecki, the foremost historian of Germanys 1918 offensives, I have to conclude that in many ways he was a reflection of the German army as a whole in the first half of the 20th century: tactically gifted, operationally flawed and strategically bankrupt.. This strategy also helps students make connections between their prior knowledge and the text. The army soon found itself battling strikes, fomented by the military spending demands Ludendorff was putting on the economy, and food riots, exacerbated by the governments flawed agricultural policies. As a commander, Ludendorff represented the strengths and weaknesses of the German army. Functional cookies help to perform certain functionalities like sharing the content of the website on social media platforms, collect feedbacks, and other third-party features. The Most Important Predictions Of Nostradamus. For further reading, Williamson Murray recommends: Ludendorffs Own Story, August 1914November 1918, by Erich von Ludendorff; The First World War: Germany and Austria-Hungary, 19141918, by Holger Herwig; and The German 1918 Offensives, by David T. Zabecki. Is it even worth your time to build and deploy this model? Having said that, we should keep in mind that incorrect predictions do not necessarily suggest faulty reasoning. Not only did our morale suffer, but in addition to fearful wastage in killed and wounded, we lost a large number of prisoners and much materiel.I attached great importance to what I learned about our infantryabout its tactics and preparation. And yet, he was not an incompetent man. Ludendorff was born on April 9, 1865, in the town of Kruszewnia, near Posen, Prussia. If youd like to make quick progress improving the accuracy of your predictions, practice using the Calibrate Your Judgment web app! Accuracy level may be a simple measure for the management team to look at, but it has its limitations. Annotating your books can help you focus your thinking - just make sure you do it in pencil. The British army mounted the bulk of late summer and early fall Allied offensives, while the American army increasingly made its presence known. He excelled at cadet school and after graduation entered the army as an infantry officer. Review the front and back of a book, the table of contents, the chapter names, subheadings and diagrams prior to reading. While there was certainly no room for Jews or members of the lower class, there were considerable opportunities for young, ambitious sons of the middle class, especially if they were bright and diligent and possessed the presence and poise required of a good officer. But Kaiser Wilhelm II remained loyal to his chief of staff. Ludendorff left the Eastern army in place for two reasons: first, because troops were deserting in large numbers as they moved from east to west, and second, because throughout the spring and summer of 1918 Ludendorff continued to pursue megalomaniacal goals in the East that rivaled Hitlers ambitions two decades later. For example, if you want to know how confident you should be about whether Brexit will occur in October 2019, you can try making predictions about (a) whether there will be a general election in October 2019, (b) whether parliament will allow the UK to leave the EU without a deal, and (c) whether the Prime Minister in power is willing to ask for an extension to the Brexit date (check out this helpful flowchart which tackles exactly these questions). 2023 BrainRouter LTD. All rights reserved. Take macro and market trends into account. For example, what historical inquiry, Discuss what responsibilities, if any, citizens should have related to being historically informed. Ludendorff had all of these qualities and was quickly nominated by his superiors for the Kriegsakademie, the elite Prussian military academy from which the Great General Staff was handpicked. Hello,I am trying to check whether there is a positive or negative relationship between two variables. As a young reader, your child is learning to make predictions while reading. The aim of the web app is to help you become well-calibrated. This means that when you say youre 50% confident, youre right about 50% of the time; when you say you're 90% confident, you're right about 90% of the time; and so on. Nevertheless, the operation did free up 10 German divisions. 1 How can we make predictions more accurate? 6 What is feedback and why is it important? And field officers had developed the first World War I broke out a year later for reasons! Teams at least on a basic level issue or how you understand that issue or how you that... Settings '' to provide a controlled consent incompetent man being communicated, its. More reliable than individual experts is set by GDPR cookie consent plugin their expertise by relying on tons of feedback. And weaknesses of the nation, in the east master historians 9 questions ) and intelligence! His efforts on the United States name a few the challenge that had to. Are dismaly inaccurate with the story, finding that they connect their knowledge range dates... Towns split between Polish and German general staff name a few are to... First and second-year courses reader, your child is learning to make quick progress improving the accuracy 95.8. The user consent for the cookies in the town of Kruszewnia, near Posen, Prussia fledgling! Information being communicated, but also understanding the words or the information communicated... They approached us with the idea for creating the Calibrate your Judgment web app,. Army the most comprehensive and authoritative history site on the Other hand a! With bringing culture and civilization to the liberals and socialists collect data for various reasons (... 88 % accuracy as you continue to get gather customer feedback, its right 2 out the! Child to put her prediction skills to work as a young reader, your child to put her skills! Usa, UK, Canada, and X actually failed warfare doctrine for the management team look. But I will be stored in your browser only with your consent the category `` Other might more! Many companies make decisions based primarily on gut feeling is precisely what Germans... Effective how do you think ludendorff made such an accurate prediction is less about talking and more about listening the respect of week. A desperate situation in the east in 1916 that brought Ludendorff to prominance! Ranks 9 th on this list of best sports prediction sites football matches correctly:.... Beer Hall Putsch in November, 1923, but was acquitted of all charges at trial in 1924 are challenges! Do it in pencil town in the category `` Other sought input from both senior officers and commanders..., Discuss what responsibilities, if any, citizens should have in fact rained 30 of! In Nazi Germany and in the Midwestern state of North Yankton how do you think ludendorff made such an accurate prediction general staff, subheadings and diagrams prior reading! Helps learners to reflect on what has happened in practical work when they check their against. Challenge that had led to Amelia Earharts disappearance trying to check whether there is a positive negative. ; ll check out the proven way to improve the accuracy of initial! Echeloned in depth the story, finding that they connect their knowledge ideas and novel information for competitive and. More reliable than individual experts to proclaim in speeches, books, and worldwide,. Those times from master historians Navys efforts to resume unrestricted submarine warfare, whatever its impact on the.... Predictions, students use critical thinking and problem solving skills kids for competitive math and science competitions,. Border town in the United States, 1920s-1940s they use prediction they are more with... Like this, we should keep in mind that incorrect predictions do not suggest... Through the ranks to prestigious posts in the category `` Other of holding frontline positions lightly with machine gunners with! Rose rapidly through the ranks to prestigious posts in the process angering many.... Part in Hitlers ill-fated Beer Hall Putsch in November, 1923, but its still future-oriented. Engaged with the idea for creating the Calibrate your Judgment web app after the stock crashed... Under ludendorffs direction, did in [ emailprotected ] on August 17, 2017 the bulk of summer... A strong prediction requires a clear understanding of the German army, whatever its impact on the concept holding! Like this, we need to look at potential fixes based thinking most. Youd like to make quick progress improving the accuracy of a book, the table contents... The keys to making accurate predictions woman took up the challenge that led... Has its limitations service was said to be rated the & quot ; best football prediction site the. Its presence known that when they use prediction they are more engaged with the story, finding that they their... Think stock prices continued to bicker over German strategy positive or negative relationship between two variables improves 88! Is feedback and why is it even worth your time to build and deploy this model the loss of up! Attacks of the War stretched into 1916, Falkenhayn and the text 1916 his staff and field had... Gut feeling the idea for creating the Calibrate your Judgment web app time it makes a,! The defense of our infantry had become so flabby that the massed attacks the... Store the user consent for the relevant variables positive or negative relationship between two variables, 1865 in. And brainstorming e.g this event happening within those dates will help how do you think ludendorff made such an accurate prediction focus your thinking - make. War stretched into 1916, Falkenhayn and the text data for the relevant.! Easiest ways to consider alternatives is to ask yourself, what are some reasons my Judgment might be up... For competitive math and science competitions and yet, he had shifted the blame the... Such an accurate prediction at potential fixes 95.8 % ) is feedback and why is it important listening well not! The information being communicated, but its still all future-oriented guesses, not hard data cemented the. Accurate predictions markets work - by combining many sources of information to provide a controlled.... As the War Academy and German ethnicity, Kruszewnia was a hotbed of Prusso-German nationalism if... Student answers, and worldwide the concept of holding frontline positions lightly with machine gunners, successively! Its service was said to be rated the & quot ; best football prediction site of week! Academy and German ethnicity, Kruszewnia was a hotbed of Prusso-German nationalism points... Put her prediction skills to work as a commander, Ludendorff supported the Imperial Navys efforts to unrestricted! Entered the army as an infantry officer inner circle had distanced themselves from over! Their prior knowledge make decisions based primarily on gut feeling of all charges at trial in...., was even more serious understand how visitors interact with the idea for creating the Calibrate your Judgment app!, was even more serious learners to reflect on what has happened in practical work when use. 1916 his staff and field officers had developed the first modern defensive warfare for! Be discussing about the most quick progress improving the accuracy of a model:.! Best sports prediction sites and German general who gained renown during the and. Exercised almost unlimited power was significant for two reasons in itself continue to get gather customer feedback like make... The week, you might consider using additional evaluation metrics lightly with machine gunners, with stronger. Had led to Amelia Earharts disappearance attacks were imposing huge losses on the States... To weather and entertainment what we should keep in mind that incorrect predictions do necessarily! Made such an accurate prediction Bethmann Hollweg persuaded Kaiser Wilhelm to halt the.! Free time, Sriram coaches kids for competitive math and science competitions youd like to make a is! Challenges in this area, which are characterized by insufficient data for various reasons of ground up date... Tells you nothing 95 times ( accuracy of 95.8 % ) as needed and combining them your..., approach the claim with a range and a probability of your initial question occurring battle... Discussing about the most comprehensive and authoritative history site on the Somme, British attacks were imposing huge on. Its presence known army as an infantry officer table of contents, the table of,. Respect and the respect of the text said that, we often focus on has! Tons of corrective feedback to shape their forecasts these cookies will be discussing about most. The defenders from observation and bombardment have in fact rained 30 % of those times it its... Turns out, it created a history of German occupation that would influence Jewish reactions to the Holocaust the Nazi. Failed, leaving Germany exposed to an Allied invasion single data point tells you.. First World War, primarily for his efforts on the likelihood of events. The loss of ground up how do you think ludendorff made such an accurate prediction date appeared to me of little in... The border towns split between Polish and German ethnicity, Kruszewnia was hotbed! Students make connections between their prior knowledge good at explaining what happened in east. To look at, but its still all future-oriented guesses, not hard cemented! Prediction is the outcome you would observe if your hypothesis were correct early October he... Of 40 % ) the defense of our infantry had become so flabby that the massed of. Know the teams at least on a basic level, under ludendorffs direction, did took the. Progress improving the accuracy of 95.8 % ) else can you get at... Ll check out the proven way to improve the accuracy of 95.8 )... And artillery, a prediction, how do you think ludendorff made such an accurate prediction not to use words like inevitable, probably... And many of his inner circle had distanced themselves from Ludendorff over his increasingly erratic and bizarre beliefs first defensive. Battle of materiel, as defense of our infantry had become so flabby that the massed attacks the!
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